• haroldhd2000

When VUCA take the world. Who wins?


Hi, welcome back to HDT blog. Hope all is well to you all. Its been a hell of a months, so I didn't have time to write for my blog. But your wait is over, i have my time back to write again. a little bit reflect what I've done past two months, i was invited as a guest lecturer from 2 most respectable university at Indonesia called Universitas Pelita Harapan and Institut Technology Bandung. I give some insight to their college student about what happen to Indonesia nowadays and how to counter it responsibly. That materials enlighten me to share it wider than ever. Yes, through my blog. Now, i classified this blog to The Frameworks channel due to theoretical talks on this blog. Enjoy.


Who can predict 2020? nobody knows what will happen in 2020, especially the COVID-19. This disease and pandemic kill us all. Every aspect in human life seem to be reset from zero again. As we know, the COVID-19 things (later on i will say it pandemic), make all of aspect in human life should be re arranged. Not only in business point of view, but also in human life. especially in business. Since pandemic spread earlier this year, business aspect tried to adapt into new normal era, include of business strategy. in general, we all know that a lot of environment scan strategy like PEST analysis, Porter's five forces, etc. Now I would like to share one theory that i admire in the last 5 years, called VUCA. VUCA is the acronym of Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity and Ambiguity. It seems the same from one point of view, so what's make difference? let look deeper about it.


VUCA first used in 1987 (based on the leadership theories of Warren Bennis and Burt Nanus). It was the response of the US Army War College to the collapse of the USSR in the early 1990s. in fact, this was a military strategy at that time. After several years, this strategy become more general and relate with a current business model. If you are a strategic business fan, you might be remembered how Sun Tzu military strategic become more useful for business purpose. So do the VUCA.


in term of nowadays business perspective, VUCA could identify how we react and adapt properly to counter the market. VUCA perspective usually combined between two things :

  1. How much you know the situation

  2. How well can you predict the outcome of your prediction

based on 2 options available, we could define each of perspective based on strength of each of idea. we could define matrix as below :

we will talk it one by one from the content one to the weakest one. here we go.

  1. Volatility. This situation happen when you know the situation and you could predict what will happen from your action. Even though you know both of the condition, still the situation unexpected /unstable with unknown duration. This situation could led into a revolution to your organization / business.

  2. Uncertainty. This situation happen when you know much about the situation but you couldn't predict what will happen from your action. The basic idea of this quadrant is we should understand the situation and have to connect any related situation / clue to lead us to an information. Key point is Big data. You should collect, analyze and interpret the data become a valuable information

  3. Complexity. This situation happen when you don't know much about the situation but you could predict what will happen from your action. The situation of this quadrant has many interconnected parts. Information is available and can be predicted. What you have to do is react and develop effective proactive change / respond by connect the situation and develop a specialist to go deeper about it.

  4. Ambiguity. Something you have to avoid. You don't know both of the situation and prediction of your action. I call it TOTAL BLANK for myself. You will face a completely unclear, face the unknown unknowns. What you have to do is do some experiments, simulation, hypothesis testing and prototype. Basic idea is better to you to react, to know / understand something.

So, after all of these theoretical points of view, what is the punchline? Guys, hear me out. In term of facing the unknowns even from the market or our resources, we need (at least) 3 things as a survival kit nowadays :

  1. Positive and winning mentality. First thing first is yourself. no matter what happen to the world, the external, your company even your boss. what make you survive is yourself. you have to create a positive and winning mentality. You have to remain creative while rigid, have to remain flexible while organize and have to proactive while reactive. Keep yourself in a positive altitude is a must, avoid worldwide craziness, consume positive insight.

  2. Data - Information. The second one is data - information. more you know, better for you. No matter how small the data is, maybe it could be your next gem. Consume every single data and make it as your (positive) information.

  3. Collaboration. You cannot work alone in this crazy world. You cannot be a single hero right now. Even Captain America need The Avenger to take down the enemy, so do you. You need a holistic collaboration among the others and create a symbiotic mutualism to face the market. Like it or not.

Hope you enjoy my essay. stay safe and healthy. cheers.




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